Half of the four-year bitcoin cycle has just passed and analysts are already trying to predict the reaction of the bitcoin price to the next Hawing. However, history has shown that this is harder to predict than it seems.
According to Crypto News, the next bitcoin bite is scheduled for March 30, 2024 (April 11, 1403). Hawing occurs every four years, during which the block reward paid to miners from this digital currency network is reduced by 50%. On this date, the reward for bitcoin blocks is halved and reduced from 6.25 points to 3,125 bitcoins per extracted block.
Currently, 900 bitcoins (about $ 27,000,000) are being mined daily, and after the next scattering this number will be reduced to 450 bitcoins.
The previous bitcoin howl took place on May 11, 2020, after which the prize for the bitcoin bonus increased from 12.5 to the current value of 6.25 bitcoins. However, the reaction to the price of bitcoin to this event was not what some expected (and probably hoped for). Although the price of bitcoin fell slightly that day and after the move, some experts in the digital currency market believe that this is one of the engines of the great upward trend of bitcoin in the last two months.
This upward trend continued until April 2021 (April 1400) and brought bitcoin to a peak of $ 60,000. Then a big adjustment halved the price of this digital currency in almost 100 days, paving the way for its next uptrend. The second upward trend also pushed the price of bitcoin to its all-time high of about $ 69,000 in November 2021 (November 1,400).
However, we still do not know how the market will react to the next bitcoin movement. All we know is that miners’ rewards have been halved, and in order for bitcoin mining to continue to be profitable, its price must rise.
Read also: What is Bitcoin Hawing and how does it affect the price?
Given that many experts, including Satoshi Nakamoto himself, the anonymous creator of bitcoin, believe that the cost of producing a new bitcoin acts almost like the lower price of this digital currency, it makes sense to increase its price after each sell-off cycle. . In addition, we still do not know whether the use of bitcoins will increase enough in the future and whether transaction fees will exceed the rewards for blocks.
Looking at previous hawings, it can be concluded that it is rare for bitcoin to react immediately to its new hawking. Of course, this does not seem strange, given that Hawing is a well-known event and the market must determine its value.
However, the bitcoin chart shows that the price of this digital currency has risen significantly over the last three periods and some time after the Hawings.
Prior to the previous Hawking, experts predicted that the event would have no effect on the price of bitcoin. Some expected the supply of miners to increase as a result of sales pressure on this digital currency, and traders to adopt a strategy of “buy with rumors and sell with news.” Many experts also expected that the price of this digital currency will rise as more new bitcoins enter the network cycle.
However, when this happened, the first prediction came true and initially for some time had almost no effect on the price of bitcoin.
After the launch of the second bitcoin howl in 2016, the price of this digital currency initially fell, much to the surprise of many holders who waited for its appreciation. , which lasted until the end of 2017.
Richelle Ross, an active consultant in digital currencies and computer science, was one of the people who correctly predicted the rise in bitcoin prices at the time. He predicted in December 2015 that the price of bitcoin would reach $ 650 after Howing 2016. It should be noted that at that time the price of bitcoin was about $ 400.
Although Ross’s conservative forecast came true, the price of this digital currency not only rose, but reached $ 1,000 by the end of 2016.
The first bitcoin howl occurred in 2012. Atrium co-founder Vitalik Butrin was the author of Bitcoin Magazine at the time. He explained in one of his articles that the bitcoin community was roughly divided into two groups before it was first distributed. The first group argued that bitcoin hooling would cause a supply shock (reduced supply due to reduced bonuses) and double its price. The second group also believes that bitcoin hawing is a well-known event for the market and does not affect its price.
Based on this, we can conclude that what really happened is largely a combination of the views of the two groups, and the same goes for the next two hawings.
Overall, on the one hand, it is true that Hawing has always been a well-known event and has no immediate effect on the price of bitcoin; But on the other hand, the lower supply of this digital currency and the fact that all diggers need higher prices to make a profit has led to a rise in the price of bitcoin after the three moves in the medium and long term.
So, although we do not know what will happen after the next bitcoin meal in the first half of 2024, it is probably reasonable to expect its price to rise. It should be noted that this event is likely to start another price cycle in the bitcoin market.
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